Why the latest polls on health care don't mean anything

I felt compelled to comment on an article I read today in USA Today, declaring "Public almost evenly divided on health care law" based on a new poll that shows that 50% call passage of the bill "a bad thing" and 47% say it was "a good thing.". The article can be found here.

Let me say up front: I am not picking on USA Today, and this is not a blog about politics - it is about polls. So let's look at the numbers.

According to the article, the poll asked 1033 adults, and they claim that this sample is statistically representative of the entire country's opinion within 4% points.

The current population is 307,000,000, according to public data. [1]  So this poll represents the opinion of 0.000336482% of the population. Personally, that doesn't sound very representative. Too many zero's in that number? Let me express it another way.

To determine the opinion of the country, they asked 1 out of every 297,000 people. So using these statistics, I could go to New York City and ask 27 random people their opinion, and have a statistically accurate representation of what everybody in NYC believes. Bringing that closer to home, I would only have to ask a single person in all of Northwest Arkansas to know how our region feels.

Opinions vary by what part of the country you live in, so let's assume they called people from every state. With only 1000 people total, they could have only called 20 people from each state. How do you feel about the idea that 20 random people from your state accurately represent the sentiment of your entire state?

To get a valid opinion of the country as a whole, I would think they would have to ask people from various demographic groups. To keep this simple, I am going to assume that this very short list represents a complete sampling:

• Gender: Male or Female
• Marital Status: Married, Single, Divorced
• Employment Status: Student, Hourly, Salary, Self Employed, Unemployed, Retired
• Income: Assume 6 levels of income ranges

Now let's say that a complete sample could be accomplished by asking only ONE person in each combination of demographics per state. This would require asking 216 people in each state, or 10 times what was done in the USA Today poll.

One last thought. The article also pointed out that the survey was done to both land lines and cell phones. This is in response to recent complaints that younger and/or more technically savvy people do not have land lines, and therefore surveys that only use land lines are inherently skewed. So USA Today is trying to show that this was not an issue in their survey. But who these days is going to answer an incoming call on their cell phone from an unknown or blocked number? Does this really prove that they are reaching just as many college students, young active professionals, single moms, and third shift workers as they are reaching other groups like retired senior citizens?

This is why I do not pay any attention to polls like this, except to always read the footnotes. In the mean time, there is definitely a lesson to learn here: if you ever get asked to take a poll, DO IT, because your opinion will be counted as 300,000 people!

Infrastructure and Economics - a local view

Last month in my blog about high speed rail, I made the point that through our country's history, investment in infrastructure has been followed by economic growth. Today at Leadership Benton County, I had the opportunity to hear the mayors of Rogers and Lowell talk to our group, and couldn't help but notice that theme in what each of them had to say.

At the Rogers City Hall, Mayor Steve Womack gave an excellent talk about where Rogers has come from as a city and where we are today. He talked about the city's history as a bedroom community that spent much of their tax dollars in Fayetteville. However, throughout the 90's it was clear that the population of Benton County was growing faster than Washington County and would one day surpass it. As the mayor said, "Retail follows rooftops", so the city made a strategic decision to invest in infrastructure on the west side along the I-540 corridor to be prepared. Benton county did overtake Washington county in about 2002, and the west side corridor is now home to Pinnacle Hills mall, Village on the Creeks, Wal-Mart, John Q Hammons, Embassy Suites, and much more. This development continues to have a significant impact on city funds that come from sales tax revenue, and has positioned Rogers in better financial condition during the economic downturn than any other city in NWA.

Lowell is a much smaller community, with a current population of about 7000 people. But Lowell is actively positioning themselves as a great place for business because they are at the crossroads of NWA. In a separate session at the Lowell City Hall, Mayor Long and Director of Planning and Economic Development Michael Solomon both cited investment in infrastructure as the key strategy to attracting new businesses. Current projects include the extending of Dixieland Road from the city line (by Fastlanes) down to 264, and significant extensions of the sewer system.

In both of these cases, you can see direct evidence right here in our own backyard that a smart plan of investment in infrastructure today can yield significant economic paybacks in the future.

Social Networking for Business and Organizations

I have had several conversations over the past year with people wondering how to use social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter for their business or organization. It was not so long ago that we saw the web go from something cutting edge to "What do you mean you don't have a website?". Today, with the speed at which social networking has developed, nobody wants to be left behind. If you are trying to figure out how to jump in, here are some thoughts.

Have Something To Say

Social sites are a platform, so don't step up to the microphone and just stand there. Every organization has a message: a business has products or services to promote, non-profits need to increase awareness of their mission, and groups have news and activities to announce. Figure out what your message is and these sites can become a great way to get it out!

Have Something WORTHWHILE To Say

This is the real key. Ask yourself: Why should somebody follow you? What do they have to gain? What benefit can I provide?

If I am following your business, I am going to expect to see information about your services, new product launches, special promotions or events. You might also include information about your industry, interesting facts, or helpful tips, which identifies you as an expert in the field.

A non-profit organization might put out information on upcoming events, fundraisers, and volunteer opportunities. Since your followers are either current or potential donors, publishing info about accomplishments, milestones, and stories of how you are being successful are great ways to show that you are achieving success and are worthy of their support.

Groups can use social media very effectively by posting dates, times, and locations of meetings, especially when there are last minute changes. Posts can also discuss speakers, workgroup topics, and agendas.

Examples of Effective Social Media Usage

My friend Joe Chumbler, and his company, Boston Mountain Money Management, are in the investment and financial services industry here in Northwest Arkansas. Because of Wal-Mart, there is a very large concentration of retail suppliers in this area. Joe and his partner identified a way to serve this community and created the Northwest Arkansas Wal-Mart & Supplier Newsletter. Published monthly, the newsletter contains news and insights into the CPG industry, and is available on their blog, LinkedIn group, Facebook page, and via email. As I write this, they have over 2000 monthly subscribers, and have created great visibility for their company.

Seven Hills Homeless Shelter uses their Facebook Page to regularly post volunteer opportunities, announce donations, and post pictures of activities to keep their followers engaged in the daily work they do.

LinkedIn uses their Twitter account to post articles about using their website to the fullest and announcing new features. This is also a great way to engage users. LinkedIn has 60 million users, and yet I have interacted directly with the company via Twitter, asking questions and providing feedback regarding features on their site.

Of course, Microsoft has nearly unlimited resources, but their Facebook page for Office demonstrates how sophisticated a fan page can be, with a great deal of dynamic content.

I hope these ideas will get your thinking about how your own business or organization can make effective use of social media sites!